Zargin Maguɗi: Gene Johnson Ya Yi Allah-Wadai Da Ciwon Kasuwannin Hasashe

Kasancewar iyakar da ke tsakanin kasuwannin kuɗi da caca tana ƙara lalacewa a Amurka, tana tayar da tsananin suka daga tsofaffin ƴan kasuwa. Gene Johnson, Babban Mataimakin Shugaban Kamfanin Victor Strategies, yana ba da gargaɗi mai tsanani game da alkawarin kasuwannin hasashe. Waɗannan dandamali, waɗanda aka tsara don hasashen zaɓe ko yanayin yanayi, suna shiga zurfi cikin yankin wuraren caca da gidajen caca na kan layi. Johnson yana ganin wannan a matsayin yunƙurin wuce gona da iri don guje wa ƙa'idodin jihohi da haraji.

Masana, waɗanda suka kasance a cikin masana'antar caca tun 1989, suna sukar kamanceceniya tsakanin waɗannan kasuwanni da masu karɓar kuɗi na gargajiya. Abin da aka nuna a matsayin kasuwancin ƙididdiga sau da yawa ya zama fare kan kididdigar ƴan wasa ko kuma sakamakon wasanni lokacin da aka bincika sosai. Hukumar Ciniki ta Kayayyakin Kayayyaki (CFTC) ta sami kanta a cikin yanayi mai wuya: yayin da take yin gargaɗi game da kwangilolin da suka dogara da tsabtataccen sa'a, tana kuma tsoma baki don goyan bayan waɗannan kasuwanni a cikin jayayyar doka tare da jihohi daban-daban. Ga Johnson, lamarin yana da bayyana: tsarin ne da ke guje wa kulawar jihohi kuma ya yi watsi da kare mabukaci.

Lambobi da gaskiya

Misali na gaskiya game da duhu gefen waɗannan kasuwanni shine shari'ar sojan Amurka Gannon Ken Van Dyke. A watan Afrilun 2026, an tuhume shi da amfani da bayanan sirri game da kama tsohon shugaban kasar Venezuela Nicolás Maduro don yin fare a Polymarket. Van Dyke ya yi fare sama da $33,000 kuma ya samu nasarar kusan $410,000. Daga nan ya yi ƙoƙarin rufe sawunsa ta hanyar neman a goge asusukansa kuma ya yi ikirarin cewa ya rasa damar shiga imel ɗinsa. CFTC ta yi nasa ƙarar kan sojan, wanda ya taka rawa kai tsaye wajen tsara aikin soja.

Johnson kuma yana nuna munafuncin masu samarwa. Yana tunawa cewa lauyoyin Kalshi sun yi jayayya a watan Nuwamban 2024 cewa Majalisa ba ta son yin caca ta wasanni akan kasuwannin ƙididdiga. Duk da haka, nan da Janairu 2025, Kalshi ya ƙaddamar da kwangilolin abubuwan wasanni na ƙasa. Wannan juyawa baya, ga Johnson, shaida ce ta rashin amincewar masana'antu. Yana tsoron cewa nan gaba, injunan ramummuka masu amfani da dabarun kasuwannin hasashe na iya bayyana a shaguna don guje wa dokokin caca.

Bayanai

Asali, rikicin yana tsakiyar kan mulkin jiha. Yayin da wuraren caca da aka tsara a Amurka ke biyan haraji mai tsoka kuma dole ne su cika tsauraran buƙatun kare mabukaci, kasuwannin hasashe suna aiki a ƙarƙashin tsarin kayayyaki na tarayya. Johnson ya jaddada cewa wannan wulakanci ne ga mulkin jihohi da ƙabilu na asali. Ƙungiyar Caca ta Indiya da sauran ƙungiyoyi suna riga suna fafutukar wannan yanayin, saboda suna ganin rayuwar tattalin arzikinsu na fuskantar barazana.

"Wannan shine babbar zamba da na taɓa gani a rayuwata duka, a faɗi kaɗan." - Gene Johnson, EVP a Victor Strategies

Wani batun kuma shi ne rashin karewa ga mutane masu rauni. Yayin da gidajen caca da ke da lasisi na jihohi ke fuskantar tarar kuɗi mai tsanani saboda sakaci da ayyukan kare ƴan wasa, kasuwannin hasashen sukan dogara ne akan manufar ɗaukar nauyin kansu. Johnson ya faɗi wani lauya na Kalshi wanda ya faɗi a fili a taron Yuli 2025 cewa mutane manya ne kuma laifinsu ne idan suka yi asarar kuɗin su.

Me yasa hakan ke da muhimmanci ga ƴan wasan Jamus

Ga ƴan wasa a Jamus, lamarin yana da bayyana amma yana koyarwa. Dandamali kamar Polymarket ko Kalshi ba su da lasisi daga Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). Duk wanda ya yi fare a can yana shiga caca ba bisa ƙa'ida ba. Yarjejeniyar Jihohin Jamus kan Caca ta 2021 (GlüStV 2021) ta saita iyakoki masu bayyana: ana saita adadin ajiya a Yuro 1,000 a kowane wata, kuma iyaka ga injin ramummuka shine Yuro ɗaya a kowane juyawa. An tsara waɗannan dokoki don karewa daga bashi da jaraba.

Bugu da ƙari, tsarin LUGAS yana tabbatar da kulawa ta tsakiya ga iyakoki, wani abu gaba ɗaya da babu shi a wuraren bayar da hasashen waje. Ya kamata ƴan wasan Jamus su sani cewa cin nasara akan irin waɗannan dandamali ba za a iya tilasta su ta hanyar shari'a ba kuma babu wani kare ɗan wasa da ya wanzu. Badakalar wani na ciki kamar wacce ta faru a Polymarket ta nuna yadda wuraren da ba su da tsari ke da rauni ga sarƙaƙiya. Don yin wasa lafiya, ya kamata mutum ya yi amfani da masu samarwa kawai daga jerin masu lasisi na hukuma na GGL don jin daɗin kare dokar Jamus.

Abin da ke nufi ga gidajen caca da ke da lasisin GGL

Gidajen caca da ke da lasisin Jamus dole ne su kula da wannan yanayin na duniya. GGL mai yiwuwa ta ɗauki matakai masu tsauri kan yunƙurin ɓoye fare a matsayin samfuran kuɗi. Kare haramcin caca na jiha da masu lasisi shine fifiko. Ga masu aiki, wannan na nufin tsara tsaro ta hanyar jerin masu lasisi a hannu ɗaya, da kuma buƙatar rarrabe bayanan su daga tsarin kuɗi masu ban mamaki a gefe guda. Integrity na kasuwa, wanda aka tabbatar a Jamus ta hanyar tsauraran hanyoyin KYC da kuma haɗin gwiwa da OASIS, ya kasance mafi mahimmancin siyarwa a kan madadin ƙasashen waje masu shakka.