Dutch Gambling Ad Ban: Experts Warn Licensed Market Could Surrender to Illegals

The Dutch government has decided that silence is the best policy regarding gambling advertisements. State Secretary Claudia van Bruggen recently proposed a near-total ban on online gambling advertising, leaving only very narrow exceptions. This package includes an end to sign-up bonuses, free bets, and the introduction of overarching deposit limits across all licensed operators. The goal is clear: to stop the trend of young people falling into gambling-related trouble. However, this move represents a fundamental shift in Dutch policy, moving away from steering players toward safe, regulated environments and focusing solely on radical harm prevention.

Since the market opened in 2021, the Netherlands has gradually tightened the noose. First, role models were banned, then untargeted advertising was prohibited in July 2023, and sports sponsorships are set to end by July 2025. Despite these measures, officials remain unsatisfied with the results. Experts argue that the government's response to failing policy is simply to increase the restrictions, much like raising the dose of a medicine that isn't working. This approach has led to a situation where licensed operators are struggling to remain visible against an onslaught of illegal competition.

Numbers and facts

The financial and statistical reality of the Dutch market is alarming. The regulator, KSA, acknowledged that the legal market's share of gross gaming revenue (GGR) dropped to approximately 49 percent in early 2025. Meanwhile, trade bodies estimate that the black market already accounts for about a quarter of all gambling activity. The legal industry is also facing a massive tax hike to 37.8 percent of GGR, which further diminishes their ability to compete with offshore sites that pay no taxes and follow no rules.

"What you ultimately achieve with a total ban is that you hand the entire stage to illegal operators while preventing licensed operators from informing consumers that a legal, regulated and protected alternative exists. In my view, it’s one of the worst policy ideas I’ve seen in many years." - Justin Franssen, Partner at Franssen Tolboom

Franssen estimates that currently, 95 percent of gambling ads on Dutch social media are already illegal. In the final quarter of 2025, the trade association VNLOK counted over 70,000 gambling ads on Meta platforms. Over 95 percent of these were from unlicensed providers, yet less than 5 percent were removed by the platform. The illegal market in the Netherlands is now estimated to exceed 1 billion Euros annually, making it as large as the regulated market itself.

Background

Looking at other European countries provides a cautionary tale. Italy has enforced a near-total ban since 2018 through its Dignity Decree. Quirino Mancini of WH Partners Italy points out that the illegal market there is thriving, worth an estimated 22 billion Euros. The ban had a minimal impact on moving players to the licensed market. Instead, operators used loopholes like infotainment sites to keep their brands in the public eye. Denmark has also seen its channelization rate drop from 90 percent to 70 percent in 2025 due to similar, albeit less extreme, restrictions.

Morten Rønde, a representative of the Danish industry, notes that restrictions only bind those who obey them. He warns that when the channelization rate falls to 50 percent, the market is effectively broken. In contrast, targeted measures have shown success in the past. When loss limits were introduced in 2024 (150 Euros for young adults and 350 Euros for others), the number of players exceeding their limits dropped from 9.7 percent to 2.2 percent. Average monthly losses also fell by 31 percent. Despite these proven methods, the government seems determined to push for a total ban that could take two years or more to implement through primary legislation.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the Dutch experiment serves as a warning of how quickly a regulated market can destabilize. Under the German Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021), players already experience strict oversight through the LUGAS system and a 1,000 Euro monthly deposit limit. The German 1 Euro spin limit and advertising restrictions are designed to protect players while maintaining a visible legal market. If the Netherlands fails to maintain channelization, it could invite even stricter regulations across the border in Germany. Players must remain vigilant and only use GGL-licensed casinos found on the official whitelist to ensure they are protected by German law, as the illegal market is always ready to fill the void left by over-regulation.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Operators holding a GGL license must watch the Dutch situation closely. The Dutch tax rate of 37.8 percent and the proposed total ad ban are existential threats to a healthy market. If legal operators cannot advertise, they cannot distinguish themselves from the black market. This forces curious or vulnerable players into the arms of offshore operators who offer massive, unregulated bonuses but zero player protection. The lesson for German regulators and operators is that balance is key: protection must be effective, but the legal market must remain competitive and visible to fulfill its mandate of consumer safety.