World Cup 2026: Record Interest in Goalscorer Bets, Rising Risks for Bookmakers

The FIFA World Cup 2026 has gripped the betting industry. Interest from local and visiting fans is enormous. The quality of football is also captivating. A striking feature is the high goal-scoring rate, currently at 2.92 goals per game. This figure was last seen in 1970 with 2.97 goals per game. The 2022 Qatar World Cup, for comparison, only had 2.69 goals per game. The expanded tournament format with more games and teams contributes to this trend.

A closer look by the betting industry reveals an exciting shift in punter behavior. Jeevan Jeyaratnam, Chief Betting Officer at Abelson Sports, reports a significant increase in goalscorer markets. These markets are now the most popular. Originally, parity was expected with bets on shots or shots on target. The success of top players like Messi (8 goals) and Mbappé (7 goals) fuels this. Seven other stars have also scored many goals. Together, these eight players have already accounted for 40 goals, which is 14.2% of all tournament goals so far.

Numbers and facts

This concentrated goal-scoring threat from global superstars leads to high volatility. On June 16th, Mbappé (2), Haaland (2), and Messi (3) scored seven goals combined. They repeated this feat on June 22nd. Such occurrences led to substantial payouts for bettors. This significantly eroded the profitability of betting providers. Jeyaratnam mentions odds ranging from 91.00 to 121.00 for goal-scoring parlays. These were very popular with bettors and extremely damaging for bookmakers. Nevertheless, July started well for betting operators. But goalscorer markets remain a challenge. According to Kambi statistics, bets involving Haaland drive 60% of Norway's prop handle. For Messi, Mbappé, Kane, and Ronaldo, it's up to 50% in their respective teams.

Meanwhile, Macquarie Bank predicts that global wagers for the 2026 World Cup could exceed 50 billion US dollars, setting a historic record. The study assumes similar wagering activity per match as in 2022. Back then, over 35 billion US dollars were wagered, approximately 0.5 billion per match. The increased number of participants, 104 matches (up from 64 in 2022), and new betting products are cited as reasons for this forecast. The US has now legalized sports betting in 38 states, compared to 31 states before the 2022 World Cup. Globally, Elisabeth Müller from Neobet states 38 states have legalizations, plus Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. A 2026 survey by Paysafe revealed that 60% of respondents from North and Latin America plan to wager on the 2026 World Cup. This indicates a significant increase in first-time bettors.

Background

The World Cup is hosted in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The tournament has expanded to 48 teams. This expansion creates more games and thus more betting opportunities. Statistics show that 30% of bets in the US are now prop or parlay bets. A prop bet, or proposition bet, is a wager on the occurrence of a specific event during a game that does not directly affect the final outcome. Examples include the first goalscorer, the number of yellow cards, corners, or ball possession. This type of bet is gaining popularity. It significantly contributes to the increase in betting volume. Betclic Group, a leading European betting provider, has adjusted its offerings accordingly. Martin Houdbine, Chief Business Officer at Betclic, noted:

"Our offering on player and team props was relatively limited and selective. We focused mainly on high-demand markets such as first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer, assists in top competitions only, and basic team stats like corners and cards." - Martin Houdbine, Chief Business Officer at Betclic

Manual processes were a bottleneck. Scalability no longer met the operator's ambitions. These changes have increased the platforms’ attractiveness. It's no longer just about winning or losing. It's about individual performances and detailed game events. AI technology in the betting industry aims to improve risk management. It should help bookmakers better control extreme fluctuations. But the risks remain. For operators, prudent management of player and team prop bets is crucial.

Why it matters for German players

German players must adhere to the strict rules of the Gambling State Treaty 2021 (GlüStV 2021) for the 2026 World Cup. This treaty regulates online gambling in Germany. Sports betting is permitted, but only with providers licensed by the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL). This is essential for legal and safe betting. Illegally operating providers from Malta or Curacao are excluded and not permitted for German players. The GGL whitelist lists all licensed operators. Players in Germany can place bets on such a platform. However, restrictions also apply. These include a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros and a stake limit of 1 euro per spin for slot games. The cross-state self-exclusion system LUGAS also monitors compliance with these requirements. The increased prop and parlay bets at the World Cup enhance the appeal for players. However, they also involve higher risks, as complex bets are more challenging to evaluate.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For online casinos with a GGL license, this means navigating a fine line. They are allowed to offer sports betting. But strict regulations limit individual betting offers. The monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros is a challenge. It potentially limits the engagement of many users who would bet more during a major event like a World Cup. Casinos must find ways to strengthen customer loyalty without violating the rules. The offerings must be innovative. They must also promote responsible gaming. This is the only way to meet the strict requirements of the German market. Monitoring by LUGAS ensures transparency and security. At the same time, it makes it difficult for providers to cater to spontaneous and riskier bets. This is an opportunity to uphold high standards for player protection and responsible betting. Meanwhile, they must remain attractive to players.